Reform UK won a sweeping victory in the UK local elections, gaining over 1,450 council seats and emerging as the largest single-party gainer. Labour, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, lost over 1,400 seats, including key councils in northern England.
Prediction markets have priced the probability of Labour winning the most seats at just 0.1%, while Reform UK’s odds are at 99.9%. The sharp swing signals a major realignment in British politics, breaking the traditional two-party dominance.
Starmer’s leadership is now under intense scrutiny. Polymarket contracts show a 67.5% chance he will leave office by December 2026, up from previous levels.