Senate Banking Committee Advances Warsh for Fed Chair, Signaling Powell's Exit

The Senate Banking Committee voted strictly along party lines Thursday to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair, pushing him closer to replacing Jerome Powell. The move triggered a sharp shift in prediction markets.

On Polymarket, the "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026" contract surged 15 points to 72% YES, up from 57% the day before. The May 31 contract now sits at 96% YES, signaling traders see almost no chance Powell remains in office past the end of May. Daily volume on the May 15 sub-market reached $7,888 in USDC, with just $507 required to move odds by 5 points-indicating a thin but active market vulnerable to large swings.

At 28¢ per NO share, a wager that Powell stays past May 15 offers a potential 3.57x payout. The outcome hinges entirely on whether the full Senate confirms Warsh before the deadline. Attention now turns to Senate floor scheduling and key senators such as Thom Tillis and Tim Scott, whose positions could determine the timeline.