President Donald Trump declared Iran "shot first" in renewed hostilities, calling the action a "big mistake." This statement followed the collapse of a ceasefire on July 8, 2026. The U.S. and Iran are now engaged in direct military strikes. Trump's rhetoric signals a harder U.S. stance, likely reducing the chance for a new diplomatic agreement.
Financial markets reacted immediately. The probability of a 2026 U.S.-Iran deal that includes reconstruction funding fell to 27.5%, down from 29%. This drop reflects growing market skepticism about a peaceful resolution.
Observers are monitoring for further military actions or statements from U.S. and Iranian officials. Any move toward de-escalation could shift market sentiment. Mediators like Qatar and Pakistan may also play a future role.