Investors made a substantial bet, estimated at $950 million, on declining oil prices shortly before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire. This large wager on the world's most traded commodity occurred hours before a significant policy statement from President Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and U.S. crude futures. Around 2230 GMT, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, causing crude futures to drop by approximately 15 percent. While hedging large physical oil trades with futures is common, such large-lot deals executed rapidly and after settlement are rare.
This move echoes a similar bet on March 23, when investors sold $500 million in oil futures just before Trump announced a delay in attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, a decision that also led to a 15 percent drop in crude prices.
Trading volumes and volatility have surged since the conflict began, with daily volumes doubling in the last four weeks to hit record highs above 1 million lots, equivalent to a billion barrels of oil.