Senator Thom Tillis has ended his opposition to Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve chair, removing a key procedural hurdle in the Senate. Odds for Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 on Polymarket have surged to 93.5% YES, a dramatic increase from 29% just yesterday.
The surge in betting markets reflects the expectation of a confirmation vote within the next two weeks, following Tillis's reversal. Trading volume in these markets reached $19,708 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with the May 15 contract showing significant activity.
Traders see buying YES at 94 cents as a favorable investment, offering a 1.06x return. This positive outlook is bolstered by Tillis's support and the resolution of the Powell investigation, which have eased the confirmation process. The Senate Banking Committee vote is scheduled for Wednesday. Potential risks include procedural delays or unexpected Republican defections, along with any future public statements from President Trump regarding the nomination.