The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in April, its lowest level since August and well below the historical average. The economy added 115,000 jobs, nearly double the expected 63,000, despite downward revisions to the prior two months. Year-over-year wage growth came in at 3.6%, signaling continued tightness in the labor market.
This data suggests the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates at its June meeting, as policymakers remain focused on controlling inflation amid geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Prediction market odds for a June cut sit at just 3.3%.
However, the possibility of a cut by September has risen significantly, with market odds jumping from 23% to 34.2% in the past day. Analysts say the shift reflects growing belief that the Fed will eventually ease policy, but not before seeing more data.