Recent military strikes between the United States and Iran have significantly raised concerns about the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.
The U.S. launched strikes on nearly 90 targets in Iran over the weekend, following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on U.S. assets in the region. This escalation has driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude rising over 5% to more than $78 a barrel before settling.
Market pricing indicates increased caution but not an expectation of a full closure of the Strait. The U.S. has also revoked a 60-day sanctions waiver for Iranian oil sales, which could further tighten supply.
Key indicators to watch include statements from the U.S. or Iran on further military actions, the status of the Strait, and decisions from OPEC+ on production levels.