U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reaffirmed the nation's hardline stance on Iran and Russia, stating there are no plans to renew oil waivers for either country.
This firm position comes as crude oil futures nearing an all-time high are priced with only a 1.1% likelihood of an immediate supply shock, indicating low trader concern about market disruptions.
The market predicting Iranian oil sanction relief by the end of April has seen a dramatic collapse, falling from 62% to just 3.5% YES. This sharp repricing directly correlates with Bessent's comments.
Bessent's refusal to renew oil waivers for Iran and Russia removes a potential source of global supply relief. While maximum pressure continues on Iran, keeping its barrels off the market and supporting oil prices, traders do not foresee this pushing crude to record levels.
Any future shifts from the U.S. Treasury or State Department on Iran waivers could rapidly alter market expectations. OPEC+ production announcements also remain a key factor to monitor.