Venezuela is preparing to acknowledge a debt of nearly $240 billion, far exceeding market expectations of $150-$200 billion. This would amount to the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history, surpassing Greece’s 2012 default.
After Nicolás Maduro’s capture last January, interim president Delcy Rodríguez aims to strike a deal with creditors by year-end and re-enter international markets after nearly a decade. Adviser Centerview Partners is finalizing a viability plan for early July release, while Caracas prepares to unveil a macroeconomic framework showing the economy has shrunk to about $100 billion, down from $370 billion in Hugo Chávez’s final year.
Alarmingly, the debt sustainability analysis lacks the IMF’s signature, worrying the opposition. The IMF maintains technical contacts but remains absent from the restructuring. The verified debt includes $60 billion in sovereign bonds and PDVSA debt, plus $40 billion in interest arrears, alongside bills from oil companies, expropriation claims, and loans from China and Russia.
First-quarter oil revenues reached $5.5 billion-a modest improvement-yet few expect a deal in 2026; most eyes are already on 2027.