A new multinational study reveals that more than 55,000 expected cancer cases went undiagnosed across seven high-income countries during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) attributes the deficit to widespread diagnostic service disruptions caused by lockdowns, patient reluctance, and overwhelmed health systems.
Lead author Eileen Morgan of IARC’s Cancer Surveillance Branch stated the research provides unique insights into the pandemic’s impact on cancer incidence using nationwide patient data. The analysis examined registry records for 2.6 million patients in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK.
Between April and December 2020, 16% of expected diagnoses were missing. The steepest declines occurred in prostate cancer at 24%, followed by female breast cancer and skin melanoma, both down 18%. Lung and ovarian cancers were less affected. The most severe diagnostic drops coincided with the first lockdown months, from April to July 2020, when health service access was heavily restricted.
Disruptions varied significantly by nation. The UK and Ireland registered some of the steepest reductions, while Norway and New Zealand experienced smaller impacts and recovered faster. Researchers point to differences in health system resilience, continuity of screening programs, and access to primary care.
The temporary suspension of routine screenings is believed to be a primary driver of the decline. Despite the drop, the study found limited evidence of an immediate shift toward later-stage diagnoses within 2020.
Senior author Isabelle Soerjomataram warned the long-term consequences remain uncertain. Ongoing surveillance is essential to determine if delayed diagnoses will ultimately affect survival outcomes. She added that understanding why some health systems withstood the pressure better offers vital lessons for future crisis preparedness.