An estimated 72% to 94% of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) cases in the USA between 1991 and 2019 were overdiagnosed, according to a 2026 computer modeling study.
Thyroid cancer incidence in the USA has surged by 250% since 1990, largely driven by the detection of small, early-stage PTC without a corresponding improvement in mortality rates. This pattern is observed globally.
Researchers used a validated simulation model of contemporary PTC incidence in all US adults from 1991 to 2019. The study found that overdiagnosis rates were higher for women (75% to 95%) than for men (63% to 90%).
Reducing thyroid ultrasonography use for nonpalpable nodules by 33% and 67% could have decreased PTC incidence by 17% and 41% in 2019, respectively, with minimal impact on overall mortality.
The study acknowledged potential limitations in data generalizability and focused solely on mortality, not quality of life implications. Researchers emphasized the significant opportunity to reduce unnecessary diagnoses and associated patient burdens without compromising public health.