A historic first is unfolding at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The tournament's top four ranked nations-Argentina, Spain, France, and England-have all advanced to the semifinals.
The quarterfinals concluded with England defeating Norway 2-1 in extra time and Argentina overcoming Switzerland 2-1. The stage is set: France faces Spain in Dallas, and Argentina takes on England in Atlanta. The winners will compete for the title at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
This unprecedented alignment of top teams has captured attention in prediction markets. Market pricing suggests Argentina's chances of being eliminated may have shifted. Current data indicates a 54% probability of Argentina being eliminated in the semifinals, making it the most likely exit stage. The probability of Argentina winning the World Cup is priced at 19%.
The semifinals on July 14 and 15 are critical for Argentina's prospects. Market perceptions could hinge on strategic adjustments and the performance of key players. The final on July 19 will be the ultimate test of Argentina's ability to defy current expectations.