As the 2026 FIFA World Cup reaches the Quarter-Finals, prediction markets place France as the clear favorite.
According to Polymarket data, France has a 33% market-implied probability of winning the tournament. Argentina and Spain follow with 19% each, while England stands at 16%.
France's strong group-stage performance, led by star Kylian Mbappé, has significantly boosted their odds from pre-tournament levels. The market also assigns a 22% chance for a French quarter-final exit and 24% for a semi-final departure.
With over $3.37 billion in total exchange activity on Polymarket, traders show confidence in France's progression. The next major test comes against Morocco on July 9.