Ecuador's stunning 2-1 victory over four-time champions Germany has sent the South American nation into the 2026 World Cup knockout stage from Group E.
Sweden also secured its passage to the next round after grinding out a draw against Japan.
Scotland's tournament hopes, however, collapsed dramatically. A 0-3 demolition by Brazil sent their probability of advancing plummeting from 42% to a near-impossible 5.26%.
The expanded tournament format was designed to give smaller nations a better chance. Yet Scotland, now sitting at the bottom of Group C with 3 points and a goal difference of -3, needs a constellation of results in other groups to sneak through as one of the eight best third-place finishers.
The group-stage twists have fueled massive activity on crypto prediction markets. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have processed billions in volume tied to tournament outcomes.
Scotland's probability collapse is a stark example of the real-money volatility in these markets.
Kraken's role as an official World Cup sponsor highlights crypto's deepening footprint in global football. The sponsorship represents one of the most visible crypto-sports partnerships, arriving in a more mature market environment than previous failed deals like FTX's arena naming rights.
For Scotland fans who are also crypto traders, the outlook is grim on both the football and financial fronts.