Is AI poised to crush the job market like a giant robot hand crushing a cubicle worker?

Anthropic's recent report projected that large language models (LLMs) could theoretically handle 80% of job tasks across numerous professions-from Arts & Media to Management.

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However, these "theoretical capabilities" stem from a 2023 study that relied heavily on speculative guesses rather than concrete evidence. Researchers used O*NET’s Detailed Work Activity reports and asked non-experts to estimate how AI might improve productivity.

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Their methodology admitted significant subjectivity, with unclear logic in aggregating tasks and discrepancies in labeling.

Critically, the blue "theoretical capability" line assumes future LLM-powered software, not current models. Even the researchers warned that forecasting AI's real-world impact remains difficult.

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While Anthropic found no clear job market shifts yet, it cautions that AI effects may lag behind observable trends-similar to past technological disruptions.

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The key takeaway: Anthropic’s projections are based on outdated speculation, not verified performance.