China's trade with Central Asian nations experienced significant growth in the first 10 months of 2025, reaching $106.3 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year.
This surge solidifies China's position as the leading trade partner in the region. Exports from China totaled $71.2 billion, while imports reached $35.1 billion. Kyrgyzstan saw the highest trade growth, increasing by 35%, followed by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.
Parallel to trade, Chinese investment in Central Asia is steadily rising, making the region the second-largest recipient of Chinese funds after Africa. Cumulative investments reached $35.9 billion by mid-2025, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan leading in investment portfolios. Chinese-driven projects are increasingly focused on green energy and the processing of extraction industry production.
Experts note a qualitative shift in investment, with a decrease in extractive industries and a rise in manufacturing and energy sectors. Greenfield projects now account for over 60%, indicating growing technological maturity of Chinese investors. Many of these initiatives align with the Belt and Road initiative and the formalized China-Central Asia political format.
New transport agreements, particularly along the southern Middle Corridor, signal China's strategic aim to reroute Eurasian transit through Iran and Turkey, connecting Central Asia to the Persian Gulf. These agreements aim to unify tariffs, shorten travel times, and reduce costs for rail freight.
Kazakhstan received the largest share of Chinese investments, with key projects including a new seaport in Aktau and a Green Aluminum Complex. Uzbekistan has seen a dramatic increase in Chinese companies, with investment approaching 40% of the total, fueled by favorable economic policies and strategic partnerships.
Kyrgyzstan experienced the most significant year-on-year trade growth with China, although its FDI from China trails behind its neighbors. Tajikistan's trade with China also rose, though with a significant trade imbalance. Turkmenistan, however, saw a decline in trade with China but maintained a trade surplus, primarily through natural gas exports.
Central Asian states are increasingly choosing China due to its speed, scale, and politically unpretentious approach compared to European partners, who often tie funding to conditions like human rights and democratic reforms. While China offers flexible financial structures and integrated production-export chains, European partners bring high-end technologies, governance standards, and talent development. Regional governments are cautious about economic dependence, focusing on managing trade imbalances and ensuring authentic localization of projects.