The World Meteorological Organization warns there's a 75% chance the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels-the key threshold set by the Paris climate agreement. There's a 91% chance at least one of the next five years will break that mark, and an 86% chance a new hottest-year record will surpass 2024.
Climate scientist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London says exceeding 1.5°C for a full year will bring extreme weather events beyond anything experienced before. Europe is already sweltering: France and the UK recorded their hottest May days this week, with Oslo seeing temperatures far above normal.
The WMO projects a strong El Niño forming soon that could last until 2028, likely making 2027 the new hottest year. This natural warming adds 0.1-0.2°C globally, but human-caused climate change has already pushed temperatures up by 1.3-1.5°C. Otto emphasizes that El Niño is natural and temporary, while climate change worsens as long as fossil fuel burning continues.
Arctic warming is accelerating 3.5 times faster than the global average due to melting ice and snow that previously reflected solar radiation. Winters from 2026-2031 are projected to average 2.8°C warmer than the 1991-2020 baseline. The Amazon basin faces warmer, drier conditions that could increase wildfire risk and potentially turn the region from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Africa's Sahel region, historically dry, is expected to receive more rain, raising flood risks.