Prolonged disruption to liquefied natural gas supplies from the Middle East could send European gas prices soaring, reviving memories of the 2022 energy crisis. Analysts warn prices could reach €155/MWh-tripling current levels-if Qatari LNG exports halt for three months due to Middle East tensions.
The shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has diverted LNG tankers from Europe to Asia, tightening supply. A three-month outage would remove up to 21 million tonnes of LNG from the market, pushing storage into "critical lows" by summer.
As of early 2025, EU gas storage sits at around 100 bcm, but Germany and the Netherlands report severely depleted reserves-just 4 bcm and 5 bcm, respectively. Bulgaria and Portugal are near average, while Austria, France, Hungary, and Spain lag moderately.
The European Commission says there is no immediate supply risk. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen urged member states on March 20 to refill reserves early. The standard 90% storage target by November 1 may be lowered to 80%, or 70% in extreme cases.
A six-month disruption could trigger a "2022-style squeeze or worse," with prices averaging €160/MWh and spikes above €200/MWh. According to Energy Aspects analyst Tom Purdie, even at €250/MWh, Europe may struggle to store more than 82 bcm by October-forcing demand cuts or rationing.