The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), citing a report from the UK Met Office, warns there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded. There is also a 91% likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.
The 1.5°C threshold is a critical benchmark under the Paris Agreement. Scientists caution that prolonged exceedance sharply increases the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity, and displacement. However, temporary breaches do not mean the long-term climate goals of the accord-which refers to sustained warming over decades-are unattainable.
Lead author Leon Hermanson noted that an El Niño event predicted for late 2026 increases the chances of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year. The report projects annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average, with a 75% chance the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.
Arctic warming is accelerating at more than three-and-a-half times the global average. Temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters are forecast to average 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Scientists predict continued declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas, which reduces the region's ability to reflect sunlight and disrupts ecosystems and weather patterns.
Rainfall patterns are also shifting. Higher-than-average precipitation is expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia between 2026 and 2030. Drier conditions are forecast for the Amazon and parts of the subtropics. The WMO intends these projections to help governments and climate centers plan for near-term risks that are no longer distant projections.