IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi has strengthened his position over moderates in Iran, significantly reducing the probability of a US-Iran peace deal by April 22. Odds for such a deal have fallen to 19.5%.
The shift in power is also affecting related markets. Predictions for deals by April 30 now stand at 41.5%, while May 31 odds have increased to 61.5%, suggesting traders anticipate developments within that later window.
Vahidi's consolidation of power, with direct access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, limits Iran's diplomatic maneuverability. This hardliner dominance makes the concessions necessary for a permanent agreement less probable on short notice.
Future indications will likely come from strategic statements by Mojtaba Khamenei or any shifts in the IRGC's stance, which could rapidly influence these market predictions.