In a dramatic escalation, no commercial vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours-down from a pre-crisis average of 140 ships daily. Iran tightened its grip on the chokepoint following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, imposing tolls and denying passage despite an April ceasefire. The US naval blockade of Iranian shipping continues, but Tehran’s tactics are proving effective at halting commerce.
Prediction markets show a sharp drop in confidence: the probability of traffic returning to normal by May 15 fell to 1.8%, from 4% in 24 hours. The May 31 market sits at 19.5%, down from 28%. Traders are pricing in sustained disruption.
Key actors to watch include US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Any diplomatic breakthrough or military escalation will determine when-or if-the strait reopens.