The Wall Street Journal reports that Israel operated a covert military base in Iraq's Najaf desert, using it to support strikes on Iran. The base, established with U.S. knowledge, marks a direct Israeli military presence on Iraqi soil.
Iraqi officials claim Israeli forces fired on Iraqi troops from this base in March, killing one soldier. This incident strains Iraq-Israel relations and raises questions about U.S. involvement. The revelation increases expectations of Israeli strikes in multiple countries and reduces confidence in a near-term Israel-Iran peace deal, with Polymarket pricing showing a 32.1% YES for Israeli strikes in 2026 and a 16.5% YES for a permanent peace deal by mid-2026.