Israel's missile defenses intercepted most Iranian projectiles, yet Tehran maintains sporadic attacks against Israeli targets. The probability of a ceasefire by April 7 has collapsed to just 1.8%, down from 8% yesterday.
Operation Epic Fury, the coordinated US-Israel campaign targeting Iranian capabilities, has reduced Tehran's missile and drone inventory. However, Iran launched fresh attacks on April 2, demonstrating continued, albeit diminished, strike capacity.
Market indicators reflect growing pessimism among traders. The April 15 ceasefire probability sits at 8.5%, while April 30 rises to 23.5%. Most significantly, the May 31 market dropped from 56% to 45.5% in 24 hours, suggesting expectations for prolonged conflict.
Trading volume reached $535,930 in USDC daily. The steep 22-point gap between April 30 and May 31 indicates market anticipation of major developments during that period. Current military operations make near-term ceasefires unlikely, with analysts monitoring potential diplomatic moves through Oman and Qatar channels.