Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf announced Iran is prepared to reveal "new cards" on the battlefield, refusing to negotiate under threat. This signals potential military escalation, with prediction markets showing a 100% probability of a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21.
Expectations for a permanent peace deal by April 22 have dropped to 12%, and by April 30 to 34%. However, traders anticipate a potential shift after April, with a May 31 peace deal market at 59%.
Daily volume in these markets exceeds $1.1 million USDC. Ghalibaf's strong stance suggests Iran is entrenched, and any confirmation of a ceasefire breach or Iranian military action could further impact these markets.