Iran's oil export machine has stalled. For 10 consecutive days, no tanker loadings were recorded at Kharg Island, the terminal handling the vast majority of the country's crude shipments. Daily output during the first 10 days of October collapsed to roughly 600,000 barrels, down from approximately 1.5 million barrels per day in prior months.
Tanker-tracking data reveals near-total paralysis at the Persian Gulf facility. Only two Very Large Crude Carriers were loaded during that window, a sharp drop from the average of 1.1 per day seen during the first nine months of 2024. The disruption continues a downward trend that began in August and September, when exports fell by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day.
The shutdown appears driven by geopolitical risk: escalating fears of Israeli military action targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. Some loadings have resumed, but analysts say the pace remains well below normal.
China accounts for over 95% of Iran's oil exports, making Beijing the primary casualty of any prolonged disruption. Chinese independent refiners, which rely on discounted Iranian crude, now face a potential supply gap. For OPEC+, Iran's involuntary reduction effectively tightens the market without a formal agreement.