Iran has conducted missile launches near the Persian Gulf, dramatically escalating regional tensions. The move comes after the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader during nuclear talks, and as the Trump administration continues military operations under "Project Freedom."
On Polymarket, the odds that Iran will close its airspace by May 8 jumped to 24%, up from 15%. The probability of a closure by May 31 surged to 46.5%.
Analysts say the expired War Powers Resolution complicates the U.S. posture, and any further military movements could push Iran toward defensive airspace restrictions.