Iran Threatens Oil Blockade at Strait of Hormuz

Iran has issued a stark warning: it will block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz if attacked. The threat comes from IRGC Navy commander Saeed Siah-Sarani amid rising U.S.-Iran naval clashes in the Persian Gulf.

Since March 2026, the U.S. military has sunk more than 60 Iranian vessels. Iran has responded by deploying submarines.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy markets, handling about 20% of the world's oil supply. A blockade would severely disrupt shipments to major Asian economies, including China and India.

Prediction markets reflect increasing uncertainty. Polymarket odds for 20 ships transiting the strait by May 31 dropped to 62.5%, down from 69% a day ago. The probability of President Trump announcing an end to the U.S. blockade by May 31 fell to 40.5%.