Several protesters were killed during widespread demonstrations in Iran on December 9-10, 2025, marking a significant moment in the "Khizesh 1404" uprising against the Islamic Republic. The protests, initiated by opposition leader Reza Pahlavi's call, spread to over 400 cities, resulting in severe clashes with security forces.
Official reports cite 3,117 casualties, while opposition sources claim up to 43,000 fatalities, predominantly among youth. The events have been described as the largest anti-regime demonstrations since the 1979 Revolution. Iranian security forces, acting under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's orders, faced international criticism for using live ammunition to suppress the protests.
Prediction markets show the "Iran Leadership Change by December 31" contract at 31.5% YES probability, while the "Fall of the Iranian Regime" market is priced at 16.5% YES. Analysts are watching for internal power shifts and international reactions that could influence these odds.