US intelligence reports indicate Iran has restored most of its missile capabilities along the Strait of Hormuz. The development is prompting the Trump administration to weigh decisive military action. The conflict, ongoing since February 2026, began with US-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites and continues to involve multiple regional actors.
Iran's missile restoration underscores its capacity to threaten global oil shipping routes. Despite a contested ceasefire, intelligence suggests Tehran retains a significant portion of its prewar stockpile. The move is seen as bullish for the "Will the US invade Iran before 2027?" prediction market, which currently sits at 27.5% YES-down slightly from 28% but up from 20% a week ago. The "Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?" sub-market has climbed to 38.5% YES.