Iran’s deputy parliament speaker, Ali Nikzad, announced that talks between the U.S. and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, received direct approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader. The approval comes amidst reports of internal divisions within Tehran’s decision-making process.
The talks focus on Iran’s nuclear program, with the U.S. demanding a 20-year halt to nuclear activities and the handover of enriched uranium-demands that Iran rejected. The negotiations are part of ongoing efforts to reach a ceasefire following military escalations in the region. The Supreme Leader’s involvement aims to dispel rumors of infighting and indicate Iran’s unified stance against U.S. pressure.
Market observers note a decline in confidence for a near-term diplomatic meeting, with the US-Iran ceasefire market showing a 0.1% YES probability, down from 1% yesterday. The firm rejection likely contributes to the decline in probabilities for a ceasefire and concessions on Iranian demands.
Key figures to watch include Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Mediation efforts by Oman or Qatar, as well as any shifts in U.S. or Iranian negotiating positions, could alter market expectations.