Israel has launched military strikes on Doha and Tehran, dramatically escalating the ongoing 2026 Iran war under Operation Epic Fury. The unprecedented reach of the Israeli military beyond Iran's borders marks a major shift.
Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli territory and U.S. bases in the Gulf. Hezbollah's involvement and the strike on Qatar raise fears of a widening conflict and potential regional war.
Prediction markets are reacting: the likelihood of an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026, dropped to 13% YES, down from 16%. Meanwhile, the probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 31 stands at 35.5% YES.
Key leaders to watch: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and IRGC chief Hossein Salami in Iran, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. Diplomatic efforts from the UN or regional powers could shift the trajectory in the coming weeks.