Mohsen Rezaee, a key military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, has publicly called for an end to the current ceasefire with the United States. This statement is prompting a reassessment of the ceasefire's durability among market participants.
Traders are adjusting their positions, with the market odds for the ceasefire ending by April 21 now at 10.5%, down significantly from earlier levels. Concurrently, the probability of a permanent peace deal by April 30 has risen to 38.5%. This suggests a market expectation that while a short-term collapse of the ceasefire is less likely, a longer-term resolution is being priced in.
Rezaee's hawkish rhetoric, coming from a figure with significant influence, could indicate a genuine shift in Iran's diplomatic stance. The prediction market for the ceasefire's end shows some liquidity, though it remains thin enough for individual trades to influence prices.