OPEC's crude oil production fell to 16.33 million barrels per day in May 2026, the lowest level in over 30 years, according to a Bloomberg survey. That's a month-over-month drop of 1.22 million barrels per day.
The cause: US sanctions on Iran, now reinforced by a naval blockade that has slashed Iranian crude exports. Iran's production dropped to 2.34 million barrels per day, a five-year low, and exports fell below 300,000 barrels per day-the lowest in at least six years.
Since early 2026, OPEC's total output has shrunk by roughly 9.7 million barrels per day, a decline of more than 30%. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint as tensions with Iran escalate.
In May 2026, the United Arab Emirates formally left OPEC after six decades of membership, signaling a fracture within the cartel.
Crude was trading around $90.54 per barrel as of June 5, 2026. Sustained prices above $90 per barrel are feeding inflation expectations, complicating central bank rate decisions. The UAE's departure raises the risk of more volatility as a weakened OPEC struggles to coordinate supply.