Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to approximately three-quarters of prewar levels following a peace agreement between President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in mid-June 2026.
As of June 12, 2026, crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz reached an estimated 5.1 million barrels per day, up from 2.9 million in May. Despite this gain, it still represents only about 25% of prewar volumes. Brent crude prices have declined by approximately 10% to just above $70 per barrel, with US gas prices also dipping below $4 per gallon.
However, recovery is precarious. The International Energy Agency warns of a global oil supply reduction of 4 million barrels per day for 2026, with a full rebound expected only by 2027. The disruption from the war and damaged infrastructure poses significant challenges.
Investors should note that while prices are down, Brent remains well above preconflict levels. Interestingly, traditional financial markets overshadowed cryptocurrencies during this geopolitical upheaval, indicating their lack of influence in the oil sector's recovery.