The CIA assessed that hardline elements of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei if he were killed, according to sources briefed on the intelligence. These assessments, developed over the past two weeks, explored potential scenarios following a US intervention, including the possibility of regime change, a stated objective for Washington.
The IRGC is an elite military force tasked with protecting Iran's clerical rule. The CIA reports did not predict any specific outcome with certainty. President Trump has previously signaled interest in Iran's regime change, encouraging the Iranian people to overthrow their government.
These developments follow weeks of deliberation within the US government regarding potential strikes on Iran, particularly after deadly protests erupted in December. Earlier nuclear negotiations with Tehran did not yield an agreement. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had briefed top lawmakers on the likelihood of a US operation, though he noted President Trump could alter his decision.