A US think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), warns Russia may be planning a nuclear false-flag operation in Ukraine. The goal, according to the report, is to divert attention from battlefield setbacks and pressure the West to abandon Ukraine.
ISW assesses that Moscow could intentionally or unintentionally cause a radiological incident and then accuse Ukraine of using a nuclear or radiological weapon. This warning follows a Russian claim that the UK and France are attempting to transfer a "dirty bomb" to Ukraine.
Senior Russian officials amplified this claim, which ISW describes as a coordinated effort to escalate nuclear rhetoric and distract from the war. Russia has previously used similar false narratives to influence Western support and set conditions for attacks.
While ISW believes Russian nuclear use remains unlikely, this latest rhetoric specifically targets the UK and France, key players in discussing security guarantees for Ukraine.
The report highlights potential targets, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which has been occupied and militarized by Russian forces since 2022. The plant, one of the world's largest, has experienced power outages due to military actions, raising fears of a catastrophe.
Chernobyl, the site of the 1986 disaster, was also occupied by Russian troops early in the invasion. Russian soldiers dug trenches in contaminated areas, and a drone attack damaged the New Safe Confinement structure in 2025. Chernobyl also experienced a total power loss in January.