President Trump is facing a critical deadline under the War Powers Resolution, which demands a decision on the continuation or cessation of military operations against Iran. The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, 2026, following joint airstrikes that targeted Iran and resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although a ceasefire was announced by the U.S., a naval blockade remains in place around Iranian ports, maintaining economic pressure. The deadline requires Trump to either end operations, seek congressional authorization, or extend the conflict by 30 days. The situation remains tense as military options are on the table to force negotiations.
Markets appear consistent with a scenario where military operations may extend beyond April 30th, as suggested by the low probability of a ceasefire being announced by that date. This is considered a high-impact development due to the significant potential for policy shifts. Meanwhile, the probability of a formal war declaration remains stable, suggesting a moderate impact from the current deadline pressures on the likelihood of such an escalation.