Axios reports that former President Donald Trump is close to finalizing a major nuclear agreement with Iran. The deal, negotiated by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, is expected to address uranium enrichment and economic sanctions. This marks a pivotal shift in US-Iran relations, with significant implications for regional stability.
Prediction markets are reacting sharply. The probability of a deal by June 30 surged to 46% YES, up from 24% in the past 24 hours. The market for an agreement before 2027 jumped to 80% YES, reflecting strong confidence in a near-term breakthrough.
Key indicators to watch: official statements from Washington and Tehran, any movement on sanctions relief, and the stance of the UN Security Council. A ceasefire extension market shows less movement, indicating the focus is squarely on the nuclear deal itself.