President Trump has ruled out sending U.S. ground troops into Iran, nudging the odds of a ceasefire slightly higher. The 'US x Iran ceasefire by April 30' market now stands at 38.5% YES, up from 36% yesterday. This shift reflects growing optimism about ending the conflict without direct military intervention.
Markets show skepticism about an immediate resolution, with odds for a ceasefire by April 7 at just 8.5% YES. However, the focus on avoiding ground operations has boosted confidence in a longer-term ceasefire by April 30. Traders are eyeing this period as a critical window, with substantial liquidity and institutional interest evident in these markets.
Key figures like Secretary of State Rubio, CENTCOM, and potential intermediaries such as Oman or Qatar could provide further clarity. Hegseth’s next Pentagon briefing may also shed light on U.S. military intentions, impacting both ceasefire and troop deployment markets.