Former President Donald Trump has threatened to cut Saudi Arabia’s supply of missile interceptors following the kingdom's refusal to support his plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The threat intensifies a diplomatic rift already strained by Saudi Arabia’s de-escalatory stance toward Iran and its suspension of U.S. military base access.
This breakdown significantly complicates U.S. efforts to broker peace amid a fragile regional ceasefire lacking enforcement. Prediction markets reacted swiftly, with the implied probability of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3 collapsing from 32% to 10.5% in 24 hours.
Observers now watch for any shifts in Saudi-Iranian military cooperation or new military actions that could further destabilize the Gulf.