President Trump is considering deploying US special forces to confiscate Iran’s uranium stockpiles, signaling a major tactical shift. Prediction markets now place the likelihood of US forces entering Iran by April 30 at 65.5%, up from 55% the previous day.
Traders are responding swiftly. The April 30 contract climbed 10.5 points following a $2.3 million surge in daily USDC volume. Longer-term bets for entry by December 31 hold steady at 74.5% YES, while March 31 odds remain nearly nil.
A sharp 6-point decline early in the morning suggests sensitivity to global developments. Analysts interpret this movement as reflecting genuine policy momentum rather than speculation.
Such an operation would represent a significant escalation aimed at halting Iran’s path to nuclear capability. Shares betting YES on April 30 now trade at 65.5¢, offering a potential 1.5x payout if validated.
Key decision-makers to monitor include President Trump, Acting Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and CENTCOM leadership. Any confirmation of deployment may drive odds higher, while diplomatic alternatives or sustained airstrikes could reverse market trends.