President Donald Trump issued a stark warning that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is on "life support," triggering a sharp surge in oil prices. Brent crude is now trading near $110 per barrel as fears mount that the fragile truce could collapse, reigniting hostilities and disrupting oil supplies from the Gulf.
Gulf producers have signaled that critical infrastructure repairs may extend into 2027, further straining output capacity. Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports have declined sharply, reflecting ongoing supply chain disruptions tied to the region's instability.
Market odds for WTI crude reaching $110 per barrel in May 2026 jumped to 55.5%, up from 50% just 24 hours ago. Analysts point to escalating geopolitical risks, including potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, as key drivers behind the bullish move on prediction markets.
Investors are now watching for further statements from Trump and Iranian leadership, OPEC+ production decisions, and any shifts in U.S. naval posture in the region.