U.S. and Israeli forces launched airstrikes targeting Iranian sites in northwestern Iran, while Iran issued threats against a UAE data center. This escalation has led to a sharp drop in market confidence regarding a ceasefire. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.8%, down from 8% yesterday. Similarly, the likelihood of a ceasefire by April 15 is now at 8.5%, and by April 30, it stands at 23.5%. These figures reflect growing skepticism about near-term resolutions.
Market activity shows serious concern, with trading volume reaching $535,634 in USDC over the past 24 hours. Significant trades are driving these shifts, not just minor bets. A YES share for the April 7 ceasefire is priced at 2¢, offering a potential 50x return if a ceasefire is declared, though this would require a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Key points to watch include statements from CENTCOM on military actions and any diplomatic efforts from Oman or Qatar. Sudden changes in rhetoric or confirmed back-channel meetings could signal further market movements.