U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth has declared that the United States maintains control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, pushing back against Iranian claims. Hegseth cited an “ironclad” blockade as a key measure exerting pressure on Tehran.
This waterway is a critical global chokepoint, with one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas transiting through it. The assertion of ongoing US naval enforcement comes amid heightened tensions, with both military presence and diplomatic efforts in play.
Market indicators reflect this tension. Prediction markets currently price a 93% probability of only 0-10 ships transiting the strait by the end of May, signaling an expectation of continued low traffic. Meanwhile, the likelihood of normal traffic resuming by July 31 is priced at just 56.5%.
Observers are watching for further developments in US-Iran negotiations, naval deployments, and reports from maritime insurers like Lloyd’s of London for signs of change.