Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar stated that recent peace talks were a strategic delay to allow U.S. forces to seize islands in the Strait of Hormuz. This key maritime chokepoint is critical for global oil traffic.
Markets now price only an 18% chance President Trump will announce the U.S. blockade of the Strait has been lifted by May 31. The likelihood of a U.S. troop withdrawal from the region by June 30 sits at 47%. Aguilar’s remarks suggest a military buildup, reducing the odds of a near-term diplomatic resolution. Observers should watch for official confirmation or denial from U.S. authorities.