The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed a U.S. strike on a communications tower on Qeshm Island, a strategic landmass at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command separately acknowledged strikes on Iranian radar and drone command infrastructure on the island. The IRGC stated it retaliated against a U.S.-linked base in response. Kuwaiti air defenses were also activated amid reported missile and drone activity across the broader region.
According to market data, the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by June 30 has fallen sharply to 21.5% from 38% seven days ago. The Iranian regime fall market by December 31 sits at 13.5% YES, up modestly.
This exchange follows a pattern of escalating direct action: earlier this week, IRGC naval forces struck the cargo vessel MSC Sariska, and a drone strike was reported near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port.