The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes targeting the Tehran-Karaj bridge, escalating regional tensions. This military action undermines civilian infrastructure and threatens diplomatic progress.
Ceasefire odds have plummeted. The April 7 deadline now stands at just 8.5% YES, down from 26% a week ago. Meanwhile, longer-term markets show more optimism. The May 31 odds sit at 55.5% YES, reflecting broader hopes for diplomatic resolution.
Traders are closely watching developments before April 30, when odds rise to 38.5%. Market volatility remains high, with significant price swings possible as geopolitical events unfold.
The U.S. and its allies continue to pressure Iran through military and economic means. Analysts urge caution, noting that any ceasefire depends on key regional intermediaries like Oman or Qatar-and statements from U.S. officials.