The Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced on April 8, 2026, is collapsing. Both sides are now blamed for continued violations. Iranian forces have launched more than ten attacks on U.S. military assets in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has responded by striking Iranian-flagged tankers and missile installations.
Iran maintains tight control of the strategic waterway, while a U.S. blockade now affects over 1,550 commercial vessels. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest diplomatic overture. Pentagon assessments as of May 5 indicate the deadlock may escalate beyond minor skirmishes.
Prediction markets reflect deep skepticism. Contracts for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15" are at just 0.5% YES, down from 1% a day ago. Even the end-of-May outlook is fading: the May 31 market is now at 8.5% YES, down sharply from 16% a week earlier.