The US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has tightened, severely impacting Iran’s oil exports and forcing the country to curb production as storage reaches capacity. This escalation in the ongoing US-Iran standoff is disrupting a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, contributing to surging jet fuel prices.
On Polymarket, the odds that President Trump will announce a lift of the blockade by May 31 have dropped sharply, falling from 44% to 32.5% in 24 hours. The market is pricing a high probability of continued enforcement. Traders are monitoring further military announcements and diplomatic developments for any shift in the conflict.