A critical test for any new U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement is whether Tehran will finally grant the International Atomic Energy Agency access to its nuclear weapons sites, a point of contention for two decades.
Experts say Iran has a history of using delays and generating "plans of action" to avoid genuine verification. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, stated that Iran's treatment of the IAEA will indicate if negotiations are meaningful.
Contradictory statements have emerged. U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance and President Trump, claim Iran has agreed to invite inspectors back. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry and a deputy minister have denied any agreement for access to attacked nuclear facilities without a final deal.
The IAEA has confirmed an initial agreement exists. Director General Rafael Grossi said a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran explicitly states the nuclear part will be supervised by the IAEA, with conversations about inspections underway.
Policy experts argue any new deal must go beyond the 2015 JCPOA by including more robust inspection powers, including access to universities and military bases involved in dual-use research. The previous agreement was criticized for not covering Iran's weaponization program.
The White House pointed to comments from Vice President Vance and the IAEA chief as evidence of progress.